Resumen
The objective of this article is to explore the effects of the economic context of the country of residence on the declaration of return intentions among immigrants. Using data from the Second Registry of Chileans Abroad, this article establishes a multilevel analysis of the determinants of the return intentions of Chilean emigrants. The aim is to understand the articulation of several explanatory variables at different levels, that is, to what extent the characteristics of the countries in which emigrants live determine their intention to return in relation to factors related to their life trajectory. The contribution of this article is to show that while the effects of the economic context do not seem to be significant, the individual variables, on the other hand, show a strong impact that is congruent with the rest of the literature on the intention to return.
El objetivo de este artículo es explorar los efectos del contexto económico del país de residencia en la declaración de la intención de retorno entre los inmigrantes. Con base en los datos del Segundo Registro de Chilenos en el Exterior, este artículo establece un análisis multinivel de los determinantes de la intención de retorno entre emigrantes chilenos con más de 54 países diferentes. Se pretende entender cómo se articulan diversas variables explicativas en distintos niveles, es decir, en qué medida las características de los países de residencia de los emigrantes determinan la intención de retorno en relación con los factores vinculados con su trayectoria vital. La contribución de este artículo es mostrar que mientras los efectos del contexto económico no parecen ser significativos, las variables individuales, en cambio, demuestran tener un fuerte impacto, lo que resulta congruente con el resto de la literatura sobre la intención de retorno.
Citas
Agulhon, C. y Ennafaa, R. (2016). Les étudiants étrangers. Des trajectoires spécifiques?. Les vies étudiantes. Tendances et inégalités. París: La Documentation française. https://hal.science/hal-01455128
Aslany, M., Carling, J., Bålsrud Mjelva, M. y Sommerfelt, T. (2021). ) Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations. QuantMig Project Deliverable D2.2. Southampton: University of Southampton. https://www.prio.org/publications/12613
Audigier, V., Husson, F. y Josse, J. (2012). Imputation de données manquantes pour des données mixtes via les méthodes factorielles grâce à missMDA. 1ères Rencontres R. Bordeaux, France. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00716876
Bastia, T. (2011). Should I Stay or Should I Go? Return Migration in Times of Crises. Journal of International Development, 23(4), 583-595. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1794
Beauchemin, C., Hamel, C. y Simon, P. (2016). Trajectoires et origines: Enquête sur la diversité des populations en France. París, Francia: INED Éditions. https://doi.org/10.4000/books.ined.676
Bolzman, C. (2002). De l’exil à la diaspora: l’exemple de la migration chilienne. Autrepart, 22(2), 91-107. https://doi.org/10.3917/autr.022.0091
Bonifazi, C. y Paparusso, A. (2019). Remain or Return Home: The Migration Intentions of First-Generation Migrants in Italy. Population, Space and Place, 25(2), e2174. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2174
Borjas, G. J. (1987). Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants. American Economic Review, 77(4), 531-553. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2248
Borjas, G. J. (1989). Economic Theory and International Migration. The International Migration Review, 23(3), 457-485. https://doi.org/10.2307/2546424
Bringé, A. y Golaz, V. (2017). Manuel pratique d’analyse multiniveau. Vol. 9. París, Francia: INED Éditions. https://doi.org/10.4000/books.ined.12782
Brücker, H. y Defoort, C. (2006). The (Self-)Selection of International Migrants Reconsidered: Theory and New Evidence. IZA Discussion Paper, 2052. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.894869
Cano, V. y Soffia, M. (2009). Los estudios sobre migración internacional en Chile: apuntes y comentarios para una agenda de investigación actualizada. Papeles de Población, 15(61), 129‑167. https://rppoblacion.uaemex.mx/article/view/8535
Carling, J. (2019). Measuring Migration Aspirations and Related Concepts. MIGNEX Background Paper. Oslo: PRIO. https://www.mignex.org/d023
Carling, J. y Pettersen, S. V. (2014). Return Migration Intentions in the Integration–Transnationalism Matrix. International Migration, 52(6), 13-30. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12161
Caron, L. (2020). An Intergenerational Perspective on (Re)Migration: Return and Onward Mobility Intentions across Immigrant Generations. International Migration Review, 54(3), 820-852. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918319885646
Caron, L., e Ichou M. (2020). High Selection, Low Success: The Heterogeneous Effect of Migrants’ Access to Employment on Their Remigration . International Migration Review, 54(4), 1104‑1133. http://doi.org/10.1177/0197918320904925
Cassarino, J. P. (2004). Theorising Return Migration: The Conceptual Approach to Return Migrants Revisited. International Journal on Multicultural Societies, 6(2), 253-279. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1730637
Cerrutti, M., González-Ferrer, A. y Maguid, A. (2018). Lejana tierra mía: dimensiones del retorno argentino desde España. VIII Congreso Asociación Latinoamericana de Población (ALAP) 2018. https://old.alapop.org/Congreso2018/PDF/0550b.pdf
Chitose, Y. (2021). Remain or Return? Return Migration Intentions of Brazilian Immigrants in Japan. International Migration, 60(4), 178-192. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12922
Clark, X. y Muñoz, H. (2018). Segundo Registro de Chilenos en el Exterior. Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores; Instituto Nacional de Estadística. https://biblioteca.digital.gob.cl/handle/123456789/2311
Corrales, J. (2017). ¿Cómo explicar la crisis económica en Venezuela?. Tribuna: Revista de Asuntos Públicos, 14, 30-34. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes. https://hdl.handle.net/1992/7546
De Haas, H. (2011). The determinants of international migration (Publisher’s version). International Migration Institute Working Paper, Oxford University. http://www.imi.ox.ac.uk/publications/working_papers
Erdal, M. B. (2012). ‘A Place to Stay in Pakistan’: Why Migrants Build Houses in Their Country of Origin. Population, Space and Place, 18(5), 629-641. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.1694
Fibbi, R. y D’Amato, G. (2008). Transnationalisme des migrants en Europe: une preuve par les faits. Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, 24(2), 7-22. https://doi.org/10.4000/remi.4452
Findling, M. G., Bleich, S. N., Casey, L. S., Blendon, R. J., Benson, J. M., Sayde, J. M. y Miller, C. (2019). Discrimination in the United States: Experiences of Latinos. Health Services Research, 54(S2), 1409-1418. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13216
Flahaux, M. L. (2015). Intention et réalisation de migration de retour au Sénégal et en République Démocratique du Congo. Population, 70(1), 103-133. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1501.0103
Flahaux, M. L. (2017). The Role of Migration Policy Changes in Europe for Return Migration to Senegal. International Migration Review, 51(4), 868-892. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12248
Flahaux, M. L. (2020). Revisiter la question du retour au prisme du transnationalisme, des trajectoires, des aspirations et des contraintes. Emulations - Revue de Sciences Sociales, (34), 143-150. https://doi.org/10.14428/emulations.034.08
Fokkema, T. (2011). ‘Return’ Migration Intentions among Second-Generation Turks in Europe: The Effect of Integration and Transnationalism in a Cross-National Perspective. Journal of Mediterranean Studies, 20(2), 365-388. https://www.muse.jhu.edu/article/672930
Gall, J. L. y Meintel, D. (2011). Liens transnationaux et transmission intergénérationnelle: le cas des familles mixtes au Québec. Autrepart, 57-58(1), 127-143. https://doi.org/10.3917/autr.057.0127
Geis, W., Uebelmesser, S. y Werding, M. (2013). How Do Migrants Choose Their Destination Country? An Analysis of Institutional Determinants. Review of International Economics, 21(5), 825-840. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12073
Gibson, J. y McKenzie, D. (2011). The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific. Journal of Development Economics, 95(1), 18-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.11.002
Glick Schiller, N. G., Basch, L. y Blanc‐Szanton, C. (1992). Transnationalism: A New Analytic Framework for Understanding Migration. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 645(1), 1-24. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nina-GlickSchiller/publication/285339451
Ivlevs, A. (2015). Happy Moves? Assessing the Link between Life Satisfaction and Emigration Intentions. Kyklos, 68(3), 335-356. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12086
Jedlicki, F. (2007). De l’exil au retour, héritages familiaux et recompositions identitaires d’enfants de retornados chiliens. Université Paris 7, París: Denis Diderot. https://www.theses.fr/2007PA070041
Jedlicki, F. (2014). Los hijos del retorno chileno: presos de la memoria familiar del exilio, ausentes de la historia. VIII Jornadas de Sociología de la UNLP, La Plata.https://univ-rennes2.hal.science/hal-02434714
Lee, E. S. (1966). A Theory of Migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57. Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Massey, Douglas S. (1990). Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration . Population Index, 56(1), 3‑26. https://doi.org/10.2307/3644186.
Mayda, A. M. (2010). International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows. Journal of Population Economics, 23(4), 1249-1274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0251-x
Oyarce Pisani, A. M., Del Popolo, F. y Martínez Pizarro, J. (2009). International Migration and Indigenous Peoples in Latin America: The Need for a Multinational Approach in Migration Policies. Revista Latinoamericana de Población, 3(4-5), 143-163. https://doi.org/10.31406/relap2009.v3.i1.n4-5.4
Pedersen, P. J., Pytlikova, M. y Smith, N. (2008). Selection and Network Effects – Migration Flows into OECD Countries 1990-2000. European Economic Review, 52(7), 1160-1186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2007.12.002
Péridy, N. (2010). Un modèle généralisé des déterminants des migrations internationales. Revue Economique, 61(6), 981-1010. https://doi.org/10.3917/reco.616.0981
Perraudin, A. (2020). La maison des devises, un capital transnational : Les investissements immobiliers des migrants équatoriens en vue du retour, à la lumière de la crise économique en Espagne. Emulations - Revue de sciences sociales, 34, 115-130. https://doi.org/10.14428/emulations.034.06
Piché, V. (Ed.). (2013). Les théories de la migration. París: INED éditons.
Portes, A., Haller, W. J. y Guarnizo, L. E. (2002). Transnational Entrepreneurs: An Alternative Form of Immigrant Economic Adaptation. American Sociological Review, 67(2), 278-298. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088896
Portes, A. y Rumbaut, R. G. (2001). Legacies: The Story of the Immigrant Second Generation. Los Ángeles, California: University of California Press.
Portes, A. y Zhou M. (1993). The New Second Generation: Segmented Assimilation and Its Variants . The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 530(1) ,74‑96. http://doi.org/10.1177/0002716293530001006
Rojas Mira, C. y Santoni, A. (2013). Geografía política del exilio chileno: los diferentes rostros de la solidaridad. Perfiles Latinoamericanos, 21(41), 123-142. https://doi.org/10.18504/pl2141-123-2013
Sjaastad, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration. Journal of Political Economy, 70(5, Part 2), 80-93. https://doi.org/10.1086/258726
Solimano, A. y Tokman, V. E. (2006). Migraciones internacionales en un contexto de crecimiento económico: el caso de Chile. Santiago de Chile: CEPAL. https://repositorio.cepal.org//handle/11362/5421
Stark, O. y Bloom, D. E. (1985). The New Economics of Labor Migration. The American Economic Review, 75(2), 173-178. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805591
Sommet, N. y Morselli, D. (2017). Keep Calm and Learn Multilevel Logistic Modeling: A Simplified Three-Step Procedure Using Stata, R, Mplus, and SPSS. International Review of Social Psychology, 30(1), 20318. https://doi.org/10.5334/irsp.90
Têtu-Delage, M. T. (2009). Clandestins au pays des papiers. París: La Découverte-CIEMI. https://journals.openedition.org/lectures/2422
Todaro, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. The American Economic Review, 59(1), 138-148.https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811100
Volovitch-Tavares, M. C. (2014). L’accueil en France des réfugiés après le 11 septembre 1973. Hommes & Migrations. Revue Française de Référence sur les Dynamiques Migratoires, 1305, 49-56. https://doi.org/10.4000/hommesmigrations.2717
Williams, A. M., Jephcote, C., Janta, H. y Li, G. (2018). The Migration Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: A Comparative, Multilevel Analysis. Population, Space and Place, 24(1), e2123. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2123

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.